Gold may recover during the fourth quarter despite a stronger dollar, tighter monetary policy and US Treasury yields reaching two-decade highs, according to FOREX.com analyst Fawad Razaqzada. Continued central-bank buying, inflation concerns and potential interest-rate pauses could provide support, although a sustained rally remains dependent on economic and geopolitical developments. Kitco News
Current Market Position
Gold ended the third quarter with an approximately 4% gain but remained well below August’s peak of $4,696 an ounce.
On October 1:
- Spot gold traded near $4,156 an ounce
- December US gold futures traded near $4,186
- Ten-year US Treasury yields reached their highest level in more than two decades
- Gold had declined by more than 6% during September Reuters
Why Gold Remains Supported
Gold has resisted a deeper decline despite conditions that would normally pressure the non-yielding metal:
- Central banks continue diversifying reserves into gold
- Inflation remains above major central banks’ targets
- Volatility in government-bond markets is increasing
- Geopolitical uncertainty sustains safe-haven demand
- Concerns about currencies and government finances support alternative assets
Key Q4 Price Levels
Razaqzada identified the following technical levels:
- $4,000: Important longer-term support
- $4,400: Key resistance requiring a confirmed breakout
- $4,500: Initial upside target after a breakout
- $4,700: Area around the August record
- $5,000: Conditional bullish target if gold establishes itself above $4,700 Kitco News
These are technical scenarios from one analyst—not guaranteed price forecasts.
Why It Matters
Gold’s performance affects central-bank reserves, mining companies, jewellery markets, investment portfolios and currencies worldwide. India and China are particularly important because changes in international prices and exchange rates directly influence local bullion and jewellery costs.
Higher bond yields usually weaken gold by increasing the appeal of interest-bearing assets. Gold’s ability to remain above $4,100 therefore suggests underlying demand has not disappeared.
What’s Next
Markets will monitor:
- US employment and inflation figures
- Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions
- Central-bank gold purchases
- Movements in the US dollar and Treasury yields
- Negotiations surrounding the Strait of Hormuz
- Investment flows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds
A pause in rate increases or declining bond yields could support gold. Further monetary tightening and dollar strength could delay or weaken any recovery.
Timeline
August 2026: Gold reaches a record near $4,696
→ September: Rising yields push gold down more than 6%
→ September 30: Gold completes Q3 with an approximately 4% quarterly gain
→ October 1: Spot gold stabilises near $4,156
→ Q4 2026: Traders watch $4,000 support and $4,400 resistance